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Pipeline Physics

Pipeline Physics Logo
Pipeline Physics produces profit
Gary Summers, PhD 1700 University Blvd, #936
President, Pipeline Physics LLC Round Rock, TX 78665-8016
gary.summers@PipelinePhysics.com 503-332-4095

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Pipeline Physics Produces Profit

In drug development, the management of phase I trials sets up phase II for success or failure. Likewise, the management of phase II trials sets up phase III for success or failure. Upstream decisions have downstream consequences.

Current pipeline models and practices poorly manage these relationships, as described by AstraZeneca's executives:

"The hypothesis was simple: if one drug was launched for every ten candidates entering clinical development, then doubling or tripling the number of candidates entering development should double or triple the number of drugs approved. However, this did not happen; consequentially, R & D costs increased while output - as measured by launched drugs - remained static."

- Cook et al. 2014*

Pharmaceutical executives need a pipeline model that provides strategies, tools and metrics that raise a pipeline's productivity. Pipeline Physics has developed and is testing this new pipeline model. You can learn about the model and the tests from the research proposal presented below.

Managing Bayesian Pipelines for Productivity and Profit

  1. Abstract
  2. Executive Summary
  3. Reducing drug development costs by 10%-20% or more
  4. New Pipeline Model
  5. Analyzing Pipelines and Collecting Data
  6. Work and Schedule
  7. Appendix A: Modeling Phase II Trials
  8. Appendix B: Compound Selection in a Static-Shaped Pipeline
  9. Appendix C: Why Pipeline Management Lacks Feedback
  10. Appendix D: Which Pipeline Model is Correct?
  11. Appendix E: Fitting the New Pipeline Model to Pipeline Data
  12. Appendix F: Shaping Pipelines
  13. References

*The above quote is from:

Cook, D., D. Brown, R. Alexander, R. March, P. Mrogan, G. Satterthwaite and M. Pangalos (2014), "Lessons learned from the fate of AstraZeneca's drug development pipeline: a five-dimensional framework," Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, 12(6), p. 419.